Rail Freight Lines - Lord Berkeley
Issue: Autumn 2008
New forecasts for demand for rail freight to 2015 and 2030 have been published by the Rail Freight Group and Freight Transport Association. The forecasts show a 30% increase in tonne km from 2006 to 2015 and more than doubling by 2030. However, the growth in intermodal traffic is forecast to be very much higher: more than doubling by 2015 and a five-fold increase by 2030. This reflects continuing expansion of trade from continental Europe and further afield, plus a significant use of rail to and from new railconnected warehouses.
These figures update the 2006 forecasts and have been produced using the GB Freight Model used by the Department for Transport. The rail freight industry, operators and customers have also been fully consulted and support these findings. The forecasts have also been allocated to the specific rail routes used at present and demand compared with existing capacity assuming no change in the number of passenger trains on those routes. Unsurprisingly, the main rail freight flows are on the routes between centres of economic activity and to and from ports. By 2030, there is forecast to be shortfalls in capacity of between 100 and 200 trains a day on many routes, even assuming no increase in passenger train numbers. The greatest shortfalls are, perhaps unsurprisingly, on the West Coast and East Coast Main Lines, as well as on the Midland Main Line and on the routes to the Channel Tunnel and London Gateway. These new forecasts demonstrate the urgent challenges facing the rail industry and Government in meeting the future demand for rail freight.
Building new capacity, be it new lines or more capacity on existing lines, takes a long time, possibly 25 years if we follow the example of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link and Crossrail. The year 2030 is only 22 years away, so the time for action in identifying overall rail capacity shortfalls and possible solutions is now!
Equally important will be the provision of terminals around the country to transfer the cargos to and from rail; it is essential that the planning process for these becomes easier (we hope that this will be achieved with the Planning Bill currently before Parliament) and that most new freight distribution centres will be built with rail connections as a matter of course. That would reduce not only the cost of the road leg but greatly improve the carbon footprint of the logistics flows concerned.
● Lord Berkeley is Chairman of the Rail Freight Group.
For further information, visit: www.rfg.org.uk.
Published: 06/10/2008
